The tongues of the poker neighborhood all the time start waggling when two of the sport’s Goliaths conflict in a high-stakes hand. Such a hand occurred through the Hustle On line casino Reside stream in Could 2023 when Doug Polk and Tom Dwan butted heads in a pot worth $1.1 million. Viewers requested whether or not Dwan slow-rolled Polk through the hand, however PokerNews is asking whether or not the traces these poker titans took had been GTO Wizard permitted?
The seven-figure pot began with Polk opening to $3,000 with 5♠4♠, Dwan three-betting to $14,000 with 7♥7♣, and Polk placing in calling chips. Each gamers’ traces had been normal performs, in line with the good minds at GTO Wizard.
“At GTO Wizard, we care about accuracy, so the rages we used for the evaluation are solved for the precise stack sizes within the hand. That mentioned, we’ll skip the preflop evaluation since each gamers’ selections had been normal. Dwan ought to three-bet his pocket sevens from the small blind half the time, and Polk ought to all the time defend his five-four suited.
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The Flop
The flop was Okay♦7♦2♠. Dwan wager half pot ($15,000) along with his set of sevens, and Polk elected to name along with his 5♠4♠.
Tom Dwan’s Technique
Because of the extraordinarily massive fairness benefit of Dwan’s vary, he must wager 100% of the time and all the time for a small measurement, corresponding to 25% of the pot. If the flop had been a rainbow, he may measurement up. Nonetheless, given there is a flush draw current and two playing cards to come back, concept suggests a smaller wager measurement to keep away from overpaying when the flush hits. In any case, a hand like A♦10♦ nonetheless has round 58% fairness versus Dwan’s betting vary on the flop.
Doug Polk’s Technique
Whereas Polk’s actual hand would lose round $250 on common after calling versus a stability half-pot continuation wager vary and will fold, it is simple to imagine Dwan is betting his complete vary on such a dry flop. With that in thoughts, let’s examine how Polk ought to react to Dwan’s assumed technique.
After node locking Dwan to wager every little thing, we see that Polk’s particular hand ought to name more often than not exploitatively. Polk can hit a robust draw on the flip, trying to stack Dwan on the river. For these causes, we’ll proceed the evaluation assuming Dwan has wager his complete vary on the flop.
The Flip
The flip was the 6♥, which was a brick, all issues thought-about. Dwan once more wager half pot ($30,000), Polk raised to 75% of the pot $115,000), sending Dwan into the tank. Dwan finally known as.
Tom Dwan’s Technique
Dwan ought to largely over-bet 150% of the pot with two pair or higher as a result of Polk’s flush attracts now have a lot much less fairness with one card to come back.
Betting half pot is the popular measurement of prime pairs, which you’ll be able to see must be checked round 70% of the time on this spot. The principle motive Dwan should not wager prime pair as usually, and subsequently should not use the 50% pot measurement with pocket sevens, is that the Stack-To-Pot (SPR) of 15 is simply too deep. Polk has merely an excessive amount of behind to threaten Dwan’s prime pairs with huge raises that may pressure them to fold usually and under-realize their fairness.
As performed, dealing with a elevate from Polk, Dwan ought to virtually all the time elevate to 333,000 along with his actual hand. To his defence, no human may stability such a elevating vary with sufficient bluffs because the solver does it, and solely calling with pocket sevens results in a tiny theoretical EV loss, which must be the absolute best implementable play by Dwan. Properly achieved!
Doug Polk’s Technique
Polk’s elevating vary ought to use a geometrical 155% pot measurement elevate ($218,000) as an alternative of 70% pot ($115,000) since he would solely elevate two pair or units for worth and would arrange a easy 155% pot river jam. This could be the candy spot to pressure Dwan to defend as vast as theoretically doable and, subsequently, enhance Polk’s EV. In case you’re questioning what Pot Geometry entails, you’ll be able to check out this article on the GTO Wizard blog.
Moreover, Polk ought to by no means elevate five-four suited and not using a flush draw right here as a result of his hand cannot stand a possible three-bet from Dwan and prefers all the time seeing a river and realizing its fairness. 5♦4♦ ought to elevate as an alternative and will additionally comfortably name a three-bet.
Polk might have raised with 5♠4♠ as a result of he might have assumed that Dwan was betting an excessive amount of prime pair. Elevating 5♠4♠ can be the right adjustment on this case, though even then, he ought to elevate to $217,000 as an alternative of $115,000, which leaves some cash on the desk towards Dwan’s weaker holdings, like prime pair. If we pressure the solver to make use of the $115,000 measurement, 5♦4♦ can often elevate, nevertheless it’s not the optimum technique.
The River
The river introduced one other brick, the 6♠. Dwan checked to Polk, who wager 144% pot ($420,000). Dwan tanked once more earlier than calling the river wager.
Doug Polk’s Technique
After elevating the flip, Polk went for an overbet of $420,000 on the river. Because of the polarized nature of the spot, Polk ought to by no means surrender any hand that may’t be checked again and win. Each 100% pot and the overbet are good wager measurement choices right here.
Tom Dwan’s Technique
After Dwan had simply known as his full home on the river, the opposite gamers on the desk had been stunned that he did not go all-in. To everybody’s shock, Dwan’s name was right by a mile.
If Dwan goes all-in right here, Polk’s solely palms that all the time name, that are crushed by 77, are 7♣6♣. That explains why Dwan solely known as Polk’s overbet on the river. If Dwan shoved the river, that is what, in concept, Polk must be calling with.
Conclusion
This was an attention-grabbing hand, with each gamers exhibiting their poker prowess. Though we noticed a few deviations by each gamers earlier than the river, there is likely to be some dynamic between them that we didn’t learn about on the time of writing this text.
Because the hand performed out, each performed completely by the river. Polk went for the fearless bluff, and Dwan accurately acknowledged that his full home wasn’t robust sufficient to lift. Properly achieved to each poker titans!
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Hand evaluation supplied by Sotos in collaboration with GTO Wizard
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